TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.
$22.38
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 25.8% below fair value
You pay
$22.38
Bear
$19.94
Fair
$30.16
Bull
$41.53
Bear
$19.94
-10.9%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$30.16
+34.8%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$41.53
+85.5%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
22.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $29.95 from 47 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $30.16 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 111% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions