TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.
$12.77
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 5.3% below fair value
You pay
$12.77
Bear
$13.48
Fair
$13.48
Bull
$14.27
Bear
$13.48
+5.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$13.48
+5.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$14.27
+11.7%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
12.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.1%
vs 3.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (47 analysts)
$14.68
Divergence from AlphaVal
8%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $13.48 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 111% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions