TTC
The Toro Company
$95.79
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 101.5% above fair value
You pay
$95.79
Bear
$38.04
Fair
$47.55
Bull
$57.06
Bear
$38.04
-60.3%
$3.17 × 12x P/E
Fair
$47.55
-50.4%
$3.17 × 15x P/E
Bull
$57.06
-40.4%
$3.17 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
3.17$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
30.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$117.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
60%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.17, the base-case value is $47.55 per share. DDM cross-check: $62.93.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $62.93 (above our primary estimate by 32%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $117.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 60% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples