TT
Trane Technologies plc
$444.40
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 1.0% below fair value
You pay
$444.40
Bear
$272.44
Fair
$448.98
Bull
$650.73
Bear
$272.44
-38.7%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$448.98
+1.0%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$650.73
+46.4%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
33.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.9%
vs 16.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (27 analysts)
$546.88
Divergence from AlphaVal
18%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $448.98 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions