TSN
Tyson Foods, Inc.
$65.05
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1.3% above fair value
You pay
$65.05
Bear
$51.36
Fair
$64.21
Bull
$77.05
Bear
$51.36
-21.0%
$5.96 × 8x P/E
Fair
$64.21
-1.3%
$5.96 × 10x P/E
Bull
$77.05
+18.4%
$5.96 × 12x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (10x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $75.00 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $64.21 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 338%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 150% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $35.21 (below our primary estimate by 41%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples