TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
$404.52
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 24.9% below fair value
You pay
$404.52
Bear
$260.09
Fair
$538.37
Bull
$929.61
Bear
$260.09
-35.7%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$538.37
+33.1%
25% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$929.61
+129.8%
32% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (25% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
49%
Implied Market Multiple
46.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $427.50 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $538.37 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $427.50 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 35% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from TWD into USD using USDTWD at 0.0318 USD per TWD.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions