TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
$402.10
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 20.5% below fair value
You pay
$402.10
Bear
$249.24
Fair
$505.86
Bull
$864.15
Bear
$249.24
-38.0%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$505.86
+25.8%
25% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$864.15
+114.9%
32% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (25% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
47.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
22.5%
vs 25.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $586.00 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $505.86 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from TWD into USD using USDTWD at 0.0310 USD per TWD.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions