TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
$412.61
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 9.0% below fair value
You pay
$412.61
Bear
$223.60
Fair
$453.17
Bull
$773.72
Bear
$223.60
-45.8%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$453.17
+9.8%
25% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$773.72
+87.5%
32% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
25.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (25% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
51.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
23.7%
vs 25.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$578.43
Divergence from AlphaVal
22%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 25% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $453.17 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from TWD into USD using USDTWD at 0.0308 USD per TWD.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions