TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
$386.47
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 266.9% above fair value
You pay
$386.47
Bear
$55.70
Fair
$105.34
Bull
$174.09
Bear
$55.70
-85.6%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$105.34
-72.7%
25% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$174.09
-55.0%
32% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
24.6%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (25% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
216.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
43.7%
vs 24.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (82 analysts)
$441.36
Divergence from AlphaVal
76%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 25% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $105.34 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 74% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $441.36 (from 82 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions