TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
$393.45
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 74.9% above fair value
You pay
$393.45
Bear
$119.28
Fair
$224.94
Bull
$371.31
Bear
$119.28
-69.7%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$224.94
-42.8%
25% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$371.31
-5.6%
32% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (25% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
216.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
43.7%
vs 24.6% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $443.70 from 81 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $224.94 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 74% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $443.70 (from 81 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions