TSCO
Tractor Supply Company
$31.46
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 13.0% below fair value
You pay
$31.46
Bear
$31.62
Fair
$36.14
Bull
$40.65
Bear
$31.62
+0.5%
$2.07 × 15x P/E
Fair
$36.14
+14.9%
$2.07 × 17x P/E
Bull
$40.65
+29.2%
$2.07 × 19x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $37.00 from 50 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $36.14 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples