TSCO
Tractor Supply Company
$33.01
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 7.1% below fair value
You pay
$33.01
Bear
$31.10
Fair
$35.54
Bull
$39.98
Bear
$31.10
-5.8%
$2.06 × 15x P/E
Fair
$35.54
+7.7%
$2.06 × 17x P/E
Bull
$39.98
+21.1%
$2.06 × 19x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.3x
2.06$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (50 analysts)
$37.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
4%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.06, the base-case value is $35.54 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples