TSCO
Tractor Supply Company
$31.62
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 25.3% below fair value
You pay
$31.62
Bear
$37.05
Fair
$42.35
Bull
$47.63
Bear
$37.05
+17.2%
$2.07 × 15x P/E
Fair
$42.35
+33.9%
$2.07 × 17x P/E
Bull
$47.63
+50.6%
$2.07 × 19x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $54.73 from 50 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $42.35 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $54.73 (from 50 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples