TSCO
Tractor Supply Company
$32.53
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 8.5% below fair value
You pay
$32.53
Bear
$31.10
Fair
$35.54
Bull
$39.98
Bear
$31.10
-4.4%
$2.06 × 15x P/E
Fair
$35.54
+9.3%
$2.06 × 17x P/E
Bull
$39.98
+22.9%
$2.06 × 19x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.3x
2.06$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (51 analysts)
$36.63
Divergence from AlphaVal
3%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.06, the base-case value is $35.54 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples