TS
Tenaris S.A.
$58.67
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 9.7% above fair value
You pay
$58.67
Bear
$33.70
Fair
$53.47
Bull
$78.31
Bear
$33.70
-42.6%
FCF $1565M × 10x
Fair
$53.47
-8.9%
FCF $2020M × 13x
Bull
$78.31
+33.5%
FCF $2474M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$66.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
20%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $53.47 per share. Range: $33.70 (bear) to $78.31 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential