TS
Tenaris S.A.
$61.61
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 13.0% above fair value
You pay
$61.61
Bear
$34.39
Fair
$54.51
Bull
$79.79
Bear
$34.39
-44.2%
FCF $1536M × 10x
Fair
$54.51
-11.5%
FCF $1982M × 13x
Bull
$79.79
+29.5%
FCF $2428M × 16x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $60.34 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $54.51 per share.
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential