TRU
TransUnion
$70.66
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 12.7% above fair value
You pay
$70.66
Bear
$36.60
Fair
$62.70
Bull
$89.50
Bear
$36.60
-48.2%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$62.70
-11.3%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$89.50
+26.7%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
27.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $94.88 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $62.70 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $94.88 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions