TROX
Tronox Holdings plc
$7.55
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 83.5% below fair value
You pay
$7.55
Bear
$36.58
Fair
$45.72
Bull
$54.87
Bear
$36.58
+384.5%
$3.89 × 12x P/E
Fair
$45.72
+505.6%
$3.89 × 15x P/E
Bull
$54.87
+626.8%
$3.89 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
1.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $8.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.72 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $8.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 629% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples