TROX
Tronox Holdings plc
$6.62
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 85.5% below fair value
You pay
$6.62
Bear
$36.56
Fair
$45.70
Bull
$54.85
Bear
$36.56
+452.3%
$3.89 × 12x P/E
Fair
$45.70
+590.4%
$3.89 × 15x P/E
Bull
$54.85
+728.5%
$3.89 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
1.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $7.92 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.70 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $7.92 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 636% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples