TROX
Tronox Holdings plc
$4.65
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.1% below fair value
You pay
$4.65
Bear
$4.49
Fair
$5.61
Bull
$6.73
Bear
$4.49
-3.5%
$0.37 × 12x P/E
Fair
$5.61
+20.6%
$0.37 × 15x P/E
Bull
$6.73
+44.8%
$0.37 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
0.37$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$8.08
Divergence from AlphaVal
31%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.37, the base-case value is $5.61 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $8.08 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 56% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples