TRMB Trimble Inc.
$51.58
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 25.7% above fair value

You pay $51.58
Bear $32.82
Fair $41.02
Bull $49.23
Bear $32.82 -36.4% $2.08 × 12x P/E
Fair $41.02 -20.5% $2.08 × 15x P/E
Bull $49.23 -4.6% $2.08 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.8x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $70.50 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $41.02 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $70.50 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples