TRMB
Trimble Inc.
$56.34
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 20.6% above fair value
You pay
$56.34
Bear
$37.39
Fair
$46.73
Bull
$56.08
Bear
$37.39
-33.6%
$2.08 × 12x P/E
Fair
$46.73
-17.1%
$2.08 × 15x P/E
Bull
$56.08
-0.5%
$2.08 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
27.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $93.33 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $46.73 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $93.33 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples