TRMB
Trimble Inc.
$56.84
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 116.5% above fair value
You pay
$56.84
Bear
$21.00
Fair
$26.25
Bull
$31.50
Bear
$21.00
-63.1%
$1.75 × 12x P/E
Fair
$26.25
-53.8%
$1.75 × 15x P/E
Bull
$31.50
-44.6%
$1.75 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.75$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
32.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$73.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
64%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.75, the base-case value is $26.25 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $73.50 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 64% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples