TRIP
Tripadvisor, Inc.
$8.63
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 76.3% below fair value
You pay
$8.63
Bear
$22.29
Fair
$36.46
Bull
$52.39
Bear
$22.29
+158.3%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$36.46
+322.4%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$52.39
+507.0%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
8.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-2.3%
vs 15.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (56 analysts)
$13.58
Divergence from AlphaVal
168%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $36.46 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 270% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $13.58 (from 56 analysts). Our estimate is 168% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions