TRIN
Trinity Capital Inc.
$15.86
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 59.5% below fair value
You pay
$15.86
Bear
$27.44
Fair
$39.20
Bull
$50.96
Bear
$27.44
+73.0%
ROTCE 9.3% → 1.28x TBV
Fair
$39.20
+147.2%
ROTCE 12.4% → 2.03x TBV
Bull
$50.96
+221.3%
ROTCE 14.3% → 2.48x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
12.4%
8.1%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (12.4%) vs. cost of equity (8.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$16.30
Divergence from AlphaVal
140%
Summary
With ROTCE of 12.4% vs. 8.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.03x on $12.17 tangible book, implying $39.20 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $16.30 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 140% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly