TRIN
Trinity Capital Inc.
$16.86
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 63.7% below fair value
You pay
$16.86
Bear
$32.55
Fair
$46.50
Bull
$60.45
Bear
$32.55
+93.0%
ROTCE 9.3% → 1.30x TBV
Fair
$46.50
+175.7%
ROTCE 12.4% → 2.06x TBV
Bull
$60.45
+258.5%
ROTCE 14.3% → 2.51x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (12.4%) vs. cost of equity (8.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.15x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $16.30 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $46.50 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $16.30 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 232% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly