TRGP Targa Resources Corp.
$282.96
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 30.5% above fair value

You pay $282.96
Bear $173.47
Fair $216.84
Bull $260.21
Bear $173.47 -38.7% $9.13 × 17x P/E
Fair $216.84 -23.4% $9.13 × 21x P/E
Bull $260.21 -8.0% $9.13 × 25x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 31.0x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $280.77 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $216.84 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $280.77 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples