TRGP Targa Resources Corp.
$276.75
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 30.3% above fair value

You pay $276.75
Bear $169.92
Fair $212.41
Bull $254.89
Bear $169.92 -38.6% $9.13 × 17x P/E
Fair $212.41 -23.2% $9.13 × 21x P/E
Bull $254.89 -7.9% $9.13 × 25x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 30.3x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $266.00 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $212.41 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $266.00 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples