TRC Tejon Ranch Co.
$19.25
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 554.8% above fair value

You pay $19.25
Bear $2.35
Fair $2.94
Bull $3.53
Bear $2.35 -87.8% $0.20 × 12x P/E
Fair $2.94 -84.7% $0.20 × 15x P/E
Bull $3.53 -81.7% $0.20 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 98.2x

Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.20, the base-case value is $2.94 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 6900%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 3571% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples