TPR
Tapestry, Inc.
$138.49
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 65.6% above fair value
You pay
$138.49
Bear
$66.89
Fair
$83.62
Bull
$100.34
Bear
$66.89
-51.7%
$3.17 × 12x P/E
Fair
$83.62
-39.6%
$3.17 × 15x P/E
Bull
$100.34
-27.5%
$3.17 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
43.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $167.77 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $83.62 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 287%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 195% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $167.77 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 72% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples