TPR
Tapestry, Inc.
$122.14
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 12.0% above fair value
You pay
$122.14
Bear
$87.24
Fair
$109.05
Bull
$130.86
Bear
$87.24
-28.6%
$7.27 × 12x P/E
Fair
$109.05
-10.7%
$7.27 × 15x P/E
Bull
$130.86
+7.1%
$7.27 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
7.27$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (41 analysts)
$173.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
37%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.27, the base-case value is $109.05 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $173.83 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples