TPH
Tri Pointe Homes, Inc.
$46.95
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 36.7% below fair value
You pay
$46.95
Bear
$57.68
Fair
$74.16
Bull
$90.64
Bear
$57.68
+22.9%
$4.12 × 14x
Fair
$74.16
+58.0%
$4.12 × 18x
Bull
$90.64
+93.1%
$4.12 × 22x
Adjust Assumptions
18.0x
4.12$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($4.12)
Implied Market Multiple
11.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$39.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
87%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $4.12 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $74.16 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 1.3x.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $39.67 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 87% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing