TPC
Tutor Perini Corporation
$84.24
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 209.9% above fair value
You pay
$84.24
Bear
$21.14
Fair
$27.18
Bull
$33.22
Bear
$21.14
-74.9%
$1.51 × 14x
Fair
$27.18
-67.7%
$1.51 × 18x
Bull
$33.22
-60.6%
$1.51 × 22x
Adjust Assumptions
18.0x
1.51$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.51)
Implied Market Multiple
55.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$105.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
74%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $1.51 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $27.18 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 4.7x.
Warnings
Price-to-book value of 4.7x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $105.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 74% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing