TPB
Turning Point Brands, Inc.
$57.38
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 3.8% above fair value
You pay
$57.38
Bear
$45.52
Fair
$55.27
Bull
$65.02
Bear
$45.52
-20.7%
$3.11 × 15x P/E
Fair
$55.27
-3.7%
$3.11 × 18x P/E
Bull
$65.02
+13.3%
$3.11 × 21x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.8x
3.11$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$111.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
50%
Summary
Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.11, the base-case value is $55.27 per share. DDM cross-check: $17.00.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $17.00 (below our primary estimate by 69%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $111.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples