TPB
Turning Point Brands, Inc.
$76.12
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 7.3% above fair value
You pay
$76.12
Bear
$58.41
Fair
$70.94
Bull
$83.45
Bear
$58.41
-23.3%
$3.38 × 15x P/E
Fair
$70.94
-6.8%
$3.38 × 18x P/E
Bull
$83.45
+9.6%
$3.38 × 21x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $114.33 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $70.94 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $17.80 (below our primary estimate by 70%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $114.33 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples