TPB
Turning Point Brands, Inc.
$89.99
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 22.0% above fair value
You pay
$89.99
Bear
$60.72
Fair
$73.74
Bull
$86.75
Bear
$60.72
-32.5%
$3.38 × 15x P/E
Fair
$73.74
-18.1%
$3.38 × 18x P/E
Bull
$86.75
-3.6%
$3.38 × 21x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
26.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $128.33 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $73.74 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $17.80 (below our primary estimate by 70%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $128.33 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples