TOST
Toast, Inc.
$31.62
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 11.5% below fair value
You pay
$31.62
Bear
$21.65
Fair
$35.74
Bull
$53.25
Bear
$21.65
-31.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$35.74
+13.0%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$53.25
+68.4%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
19.8%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
33.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.9%
vs 19.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (34 analysts)
$38.22
Divergence from AlphaVal
6%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $35.74 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 71% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions