TNL
Travel + Leisure Co.
$66.74
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.3% below fair value
You pay
$66.74
Bear
$66.19
Fair
$82.74
Bull
$99.29
Bear
$66.19
-0.8%
$4.37 × 15x P/E
Fair
$82.74
+24.0%
$4.37 × 19x P/E
Bull
$99.29
+48.8%
$4.37 × 23x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
18.9x
4.37$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$81.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
1%
Summary
Applying a 19x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.37, the base-case value is $82.74 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples