TNL
Travel + Leisure Co.
$78.45
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.1% below fair value
You pay
$78.45
Bear
$71.44
Fair
$89.29
Bull
$107.15
Bear
$71.44
-8.9%
$4.75 × 15x P/E
Fair
$89.29
+13.8%
$4.75 × 19x P/E
Bull
$107.15
+36.6%
$4.75 × 23x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $87.25 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $89.29 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 38%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples