TNL Travel + Leisure Co.
$65.12
Stable Earnings Power 65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 26.9% below fair value

You pay $65.12
Bear $71.26
Fair $89.07
Bull $106.89
Bear $71.26 +9.4% $4.75 × 15x P/E
Fair $89.07 +36.8% $4.75 × 19x P/E
Bull $106.89 +64.1% $4.75 × 23x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 13.7x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $86.38 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $89.07 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 38%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples