TNK
Teekay Tankers Ltd.
$101.56
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 78.9% below fair value
You pay
$101.56
Bear
$270.25
Fair
$480.87
Bull
$748.25
Bear
$270.25
+166.1%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$480.87
+373.5%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$748.25
+636.8%
27% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
47%
Implied Market Multiple
8.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-3.5%
vs 20.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$86.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
459%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $480.87 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $86.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 459% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions