TNET
TriNet Group, Inc.
$71.62
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 23.6% below fair value
You pay
$71.62
Bear
$74.88
Fair
$93.72
Bull
$110.60
Bear
$74.88
+4.6%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$93.72
+30.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$110.60
+54.4%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
13.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.4%
vs 6.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$85.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
10%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $93.72 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 42% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions