TNC
Tennant Company
$69.22
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 30.0% above fair value
You pay
$69.22
Bear
$42.60
Fair
$53.25
Bull
$63.90
Bear
$42.60
-38.5%
$3.55 × 12x P/E
Fair
$53.25
-23.1%
$3.55 × 15x P/E
Bull
$63.90
-7.7%
$3.55 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
3.55$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$140.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
62%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.55, the base-case value is $53.25 per share. DDM cross-check: $35.92.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 50%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $35.92 (below our primary estimate by 33%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $140.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples