TMO
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
$526.23
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 30.5% above fair value
You pay
$526.23
Bear
$322.56
Fair
$403.21
Bull
$483.84
Bear
$322.56
-38.7%
$21.68 × 12x P/E
Fair
$403.21
-23.4%
$21.68 × 15x P/E
Bull
$483.84
-8.1%
$21.68 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $585.18 from 42 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $403.21 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $585.18 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples