TMO
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
$609.82
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 129.2% above fair value
You pay
$609.82
Bear
$212.88
Fair
$266.10
Bull
$319.32
Bear
$212.88
-65.1%
$17.74 × 12x P/E
Fair
$266.10
-56.4%
$17.74 × 15x P/E
Bull
$319.32
-47.6%
$17.74 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
17.74$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
34.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (43 analysts)
$623.36
Divergence from AlphaVal
57%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $17.74, the base-case value is $266.10 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $623.36 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples