TMO
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
$448.28
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 7.0% above fair value
You pay
$448.28
Bear
$335.28
Fair
$419.11
Bull
$502.93
Bear
$335.28
-25.2%
$21.68 × 12x P/E
Fair
$419.11
-6.5%
$21.68 × 15x P/E
Bull
$502.93
+12.2%
$21.68 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $638.20 from 42 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $419.11 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $638.20 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples