TMHC
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation
$72.45
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 48.2% below fair value
You pay
$72.45
Bear
$108.78
Fair
$139.86
Bull
$170.94
Bear
$108.78
+50.1%
$7.77 × 14x
Fair
$139.86
+93.0%
$7.77 × 18x
Bull
$170.94
+135.9%
$7.77 × 22x
Adjust Assumptions
18.0x
7.77$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($7.77)
Implied Market Multiple
9.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (31 analysts)
$73.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
90%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $7.77 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $139.86 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 1.2x.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $73.50 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 90% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing