TMDX
TransMedics Group, Inc.
$77.87
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 47.5% below fair value
You pay
$77.87
Bear
$82.72
Fair
$148.38
Bull
$230.31
Bear
$82.72
+6.2%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$148.38
+90.6%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$230.31
+195.8%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
20.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.2%
vs 20.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$99.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
49%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $148.38 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $99.75 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 49% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions