TMDX
TransMedics Group, Inc.
$68.94
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 43.2% below fair value
You pay
$68.94
Bear
$67.74
Fair
$121.44
Bull
$188.43
Bear
$67.74
-1.7%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$121.44
+76.2%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$188.43
+173.3%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
22.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $124.33 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $121.44 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions