TMDX
TransMedics Group, Inc.
$76.14
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 36.4% below fair value
You pay
$76.14
Bear
$66.81
Fair
$119.78
Bull
$185.85
Bear
$66.81
-12.3%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$119.78
+57.3%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$185.85
+144.1%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
24.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.7%
vs 20.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $116.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $119.78 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions