TM
Toyota Motor Corporation
$186.30
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 315.4% above fair value
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$44.85
-75.9%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$0.00
-100.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
43.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
19.3%
vs 4.5% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $179.41 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $44.85 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $179.41 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from JPY into USD using USDJPY at 0.0061 USD per JPY.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions