TLN
Talen Energy Corporation
$312.74
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 282.4% above fair value
You pay
$312.74
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$81.79
Bull
$199.81
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$81.79
-73.8%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$199.81
-36.1%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
19.8%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
80.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
29.7%
vs 19.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$466.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
82%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $81.79 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $466.80 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 82% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions