TLN
Talen Energy Corporation
$337.78
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 330.3% above fair value
You pay
$337.78
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$78.50
Bull
$191.77
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$78.50
-76.8%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$191.77
-43.2%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
19.8%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
87.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
30.9%
vs 19.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$464.85
Divergence from AlphaVal
83%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $78.50 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $464.85 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 83% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions