TLK
Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk
$12.21
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 45.4% below fair value
You pay
$12.21
Bear
$17.90
Fair
$22.38
Bull
$26.85
Bear
$17.90
+46.6%
$1.49 × 12x P/E
Fair
$22.38
+83.3%
$1.49 × 15x P/E
Bull
$26.85
+119.9%
$1.49 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.49$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
8.2x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.49, the base-case value is $22.38 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 48%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 468% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Financial statements were converted from IDR into USD using USDIDR at 0.0001 USD per IDR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples