TKOMF
Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc.
$46.59
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 14.4% below fair value
Bear
$54.42
+16.8%
ROTCE 18.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair
$54.42
+16.8%
ROTCE 24.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$54.42
+16.8%
ROTCE 27.5% → 4.00x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
24.0%
6.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (24.0%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
3.42x
Summary
With ROTCE of 24.0% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $13.61 tangible book, implying $54.42 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Financial statements were converted from JPY into USD using USDJPY at 0.0063 USD per JPY.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly