TKO
TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
$193.17
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 53.7% below fair value
You pay
$193.17
Bear
$244.17
Fair
$417.11
Bull
$614.25
Bear
$244.17
+26.4%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$417.11
+115.9%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$614.25
+218.0%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
15.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.4%
vs 15.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $236.20 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $417.11 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $236.20 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 102% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions