TKO
TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
$193.41
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 65.0% below fair value
You pay
$193.41
Bear
$317.29
Fair
$552.78
Bull
$826.47
Bear
$317.29
+64.1%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$552.78
+185.8%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$826.47
+327.3%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
14.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
4.3%
vs 16.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$227.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
144%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $552.78 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 60% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $227.00 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 144% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions