TKO
TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
$178.01
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 63.8% below fair value
You pay
$178.01
Bear
$294.63
Fair
$491.08
Bull
$711.46
Bear
$294.63
+65.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$491.08
+175.9%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$711.46
+299.7%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
13.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.4%
vs 15.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$227.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
116%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $491.08 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 60% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $227.00 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 116% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions