TKO
TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
$191.50
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 54.0% below fair value
You pay
$191.50
Bear
$243.95
Fair
$416.73
Bull
$613.68
Bear
$243.95
+27.4%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$416.73
+117.6%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$613.68
+220.5%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
15.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $234.67 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $416.73 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $234.67 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 103% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions