TK
Teekay Corporation
$14.06
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.1% below fair value
You pay
$14.06
Bear
$13.56
Fair
$16.95
Bull
$20.34
Bear
$13.56
-3.6%
$1.13 × 12x P/E
Fair
$16.95
+20.6%
$1.13 × 15x P/E
Bull
$20.34
+44.7%
$1.13 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.13$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.4x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.13, the base-case value is $16.95 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 465% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples