TJX
The TJX Companies, Inc.
$147.93
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 106.7% above fair value
You pay
$147.93
Bear
$56.15
Fair
$71.58
Bull
$85.77
Bear
$56.15
-62.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$71.58
-51.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$85.77
-42.0%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
35.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
16.6%
vs 7.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (53 analysts)
$174.15
Divergence from AlphaVal
59%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $71.58 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $174.15 (from 53 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions