TJX
The TJX Companies, Inc.
$158.27
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 45.2% above fair value
You pay
$158.27
Bear
$85.48
Fair
$109.01
Bull
$130.64
Bear
$85.48
-46.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$109.01
-31.1%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$130.64
-17.5%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
38.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $181.00 from 53 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $109.01 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $181.00 (from 53 analysts). Our estimate is 61% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions