TJX
The TJX Companies, Inc.
$156.00
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 42.2% above fair value
You pay
$156.00
Bear
$86.02
Fair
$109.71
Bull
$131.47
Bear
$86.02
-44.9%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$109.71
-29.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$131.47
-15.7%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
37.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.4%
vs 7.5% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $182.75 from 53 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $109.71 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $182.75 (from 53 analysts). Our estimate is 61% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions