TITN
Titan Machinery Inc.
$23.56
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 75.5% below fair value
You pay
$23.56
Bear
$59.36
Fair
$96.05
Bull
$133.25
Bear
$59.36
+151.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$96.05
+307.7%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$133.25
+465.6%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
9.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-0.0%
vs 11.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$29.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
231%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $96.05 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $29.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 231% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions