TIGO
Millicom International Cellular S.A.
$85.84
Platform & Compounding FCF
75%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 78.8% above fair value
You pay
$85.84
Bear
$48.00
Fair
$48.00
Bull
$54.71
Bear
$48.00
-44.1%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$48.00
-44.1%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$54.71
-36.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
18.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $64.25 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $48.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $64.25 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions