TIGO
Millicom International Cellular S.A.
$81.65
Platform & Compounding FCF
75%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 38.4% below fair value
You pay
$81.65
Bear
$99.64
Fair
$132.49
Bull
$162.21
Bear
$99.64
+22.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$132.49
+62.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$162.21
+98.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
12.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.3%
vs 6.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$89.78
Divergence from AlphaVal
48%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $132.49 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $89.78 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 48% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions