TIGO
Millicom International Cellular S.A.
$98.34
Platform & Compounding FCF
75%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 33.1% above fair value
You pay
$98.34
Bear
$51.77
Fair
$73.90
Bull
$93.91
Bear
$51.77
-47.4%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$73.90
-24.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$93.91
-4.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
20.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.4%
vs 6.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $74.10 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $73.90 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions