TIC
TIC Solutions, Inc.
$8.82
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.0% below fair value
You pay
$8.82
Bear
$4.93
Fair
$12.42
Bull
$21.36
Bear
$4.93
-44.2%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$12.42
+40.8%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$21.36
+142.2%
24% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.1%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
27.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.1%
vs 18.1% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $12.42 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions