THS
TreeHouse Foods, Inc.
$24.43
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 181.8% above fair value
You pay
$24.43
Bear
$7.14
Fair
$8.67
Bull
$10.20
Bear
$7.14
-70.8%
$0.51 × 14x P/E
Fair
$8.67
-64.5%
$0.51 × 17x P/E
Bull
$10.20
-58.2%
$0.51 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
0.51$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
47.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$30.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
72%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.51, the base-case value is $8.67 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $30.80 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 72% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples