THS
TreeHouse Foods, Inc.
$24.43
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 4.7% above fair value
You pay
$24.43
Bear
$19.22
Fair
$23.34
Bull
$27.46
Bear
$19.22
-21.3%
$1.23 × 14x P/E
Fair
$23.34
-4.5%
$1.23 × 17x P/E
Bull
$27.46
+12.4%
$1.23 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $30.80 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.34 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 141%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $30.80 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples