THRM Gentherm Incorporated
$36.05
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 23.3% above fair value

You pay $36.05
Bear $25.57
Fair $29.23
Bull $32.88
Bear $25.57 -29.1% $1.46 × 16x P/E
Fair $29.23 -18.9% $1.46 × 18x P/E
Bull $32.88 -8.8% $1.46 × 20x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.7x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $38.67 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $29.23 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 143%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $38.67 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples