THRM
Gentherm Incorporated
$32.74
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 14.0% above fair value
You pay
$32.74
Bear
$25.14
Fair
$28.73
Bull
$32.32
Bear
$25.14
-23.2%
$1.46 × 16x P/E
Fair
$28.73
-12.3%
$1.46 × 18x P/E
Bull
$32.32
-1.3%
$1.46 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $36.67 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $28.73 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 143%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $36.67 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples