THRM
Gentherm Incorporated
$28.44
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 9.1% above fair value
You pay
$28.44
Bear
$22.82
Fair
$26.08
Bull
$29.34
Bear
$22.82
-19.8%
$1.46 × 16x P/E
Fair
$26.08
-8.3%
$1.46 × 18x P/E
Bull
$29.34
+3.2%
$1.46 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.9x
1.46$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$44.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
41%
Summary
Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.46, the base-case value is $26.08 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 143%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 662% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $44.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples