THRM
Gentherm Incorporated
$40.70
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 56.1% above fair value
You pay
$40.70
Bear
$22.82
Fair
$26.08
Bull
$29.34
Bear
$22.82
-43.9%
$1.46 × 16x P/E
Fair
$26.08
-35.9%
$1.46 × 18x P/E
Bull
$29.34
-27.9%
$1.46 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.9x
1.46$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
27.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$47.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
45%
Summary
Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.46, the base-case value is $26.08 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 143%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $47.67 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples