THR
Thermon Group Holdings, Inc.
$61.14
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 367.9% above fair value
You pay
$61.14
Bear
$10.24
Fair
$13.07
Bull
$15.60
Bear
$10.24
-83.2%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$13.07
-78.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$15.60
-74.5%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
65.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
24.8%
vs 6.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$57.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
77%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $13.07 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $57.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 77% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions