THR
Thermon Group Holdings, Inc.
$65.71
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 163.0% above fair value
You pay
$65.71
Bear
$20.90
Fair
$24.98
Bull
$28.63
Bear
$20.90
-68.2%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$24.98
-62.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$28.63
-56.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
80.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $57.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $24.98 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $57.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions