THC
Tenet Healthcare Corporation
$267.25
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 15.0% above fair value
You pay
$267.25
Bear
$185.88
Fair
$232.35
Bull
$278.82
Bear
$185.88
-30.4%
$15.49 × 12x P/E
Fair
$232.35
-13.1%
$15.49 × 15x P/E
Bull
$278.82
+4.3%
$15.49 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
15.49$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (32 analysts)
$288.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
19%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $15.49, the base-case value is $232.35 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples