TGTX
TG Therapeutics, Inc.
$55.98
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 32.1% above fair value
You pay
$55.98
Bear
$17.18
Fair
$42.37
Bull
$62.33
Bear
$17.18
-69.3%
18% rev growth, 21% terminal margin
Fair
$42.37
-24.3%
30% rev growth, 28% terminal margin
Bull
$62.33
+11.3%
35% rev growth, 32% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
30.0%
28.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (30%) × margin expansion to 28%
Terminal Value % of EV
63%
Implied Market Multiple
14.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$80.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
47%
Summary
Projecting 30% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 14% to 28% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $42.37 per share.
Warnings
Gross margin of 84% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Wall Street's average price target is $80.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep