TGT
Target Corporation
$149.70
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 12.2% above fair value
You pay
$149.70
Bear
$116.75
Fair
$133.43
Bull
$150.11
Bear
$116.75
-22.0%
$8.13 × 14x P/E
Fair
$133.43
-10.9%
$8.13 × 16x P/E
Bull
$150.11
+0.3%
$8.13 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $139.65 from 60 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $133.43 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples