TGT
Target Corporation
$156.26
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 20.1% above fair value
You pay
$156.26
Bear
$113.82
Fair
$130.08
Bull
$146.34
Bear
$113.82
-27.2%
$8.13 × 14x P/E
Fair
$130.08
-16.8%
$8.13 × 16x P/E
Bull
$146.34
-6.3%
$8.13 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
8.13$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (60 analysts)
$166.10
Divergence from AlphaVal
22%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $8.13, the base-case value is $130.08 per share. DDM cross-check: $116.48.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples