TGT
Target Corporation
$141.20
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 7.0% above fair value
You pay
$141.20
Bear
$115.49
Fair
$131.99
Bull
$148.49
Bear
$115.49
-18.2%
$8.13 × 14x P/E
Fair
$131.99
-6.5%
$8.13 × 16x P/E
Bull
$148.49
+5.2%
$8.13 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $135.53 from 60 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $131.99 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples