TGLS
Tecnoglass Inc.
$41.16
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 5.1% below fair value
You pay
$41.16
Bear
$28.37
Fair
$43.36
Bull
$59.54
Bear
$28.37
-31.1%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$43.36
+5.3%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$59.54
+44.6%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
25.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $55.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $43.36 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $55.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions