TGLS
Tecnoglass Inc.
$37.98
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 9.3% below fair value
You pay
$37.98
Bear
$27.38
Fair
$41.85
Bull
$57.47
Bear
$27.38
-27.9%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$41.85
+10.2%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$57.47
+51.3%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
22.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.7%
vs 14.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$55.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
24%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $41.85 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions