TGLS
Tecnoglass Inc.
$46.83
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 8.0% above fair value
You pay
$46.83
Bear
$28.37
Fair
$43.36
Bull
$59.54
Bear
$28.37
-39.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$43.36
-7.4%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$59.54
+27.1%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
28.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.9%
vs 13.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $55.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $43.36 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $55.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions