TFPM
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.
$30.75
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 124.8% above fair value
You pay
$30.75
Bear
$11.17
Fair
$13.68
Bull
$15.97
Bear
$11.17
-63.7%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$13.68
-55.5%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$15.97
-48.1%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
40.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.4%
vs 7.2% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $13.68 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions