TFIN
Triumph Financial, Inc.
$63.33
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 87.1% above fair value
You pay
$63.33
Bear
$23.69
Fair
$33.84
Bull
$43.99
Bear
$23.69
-62.6%
ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$33.84
-46.6%
ROTCE 4.7% → 0.30x TBV
Bull
$43.99
-30.5%
ROTCE 5.4% → 0.30x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
4.7%
11.8%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (4.7%) vs. cost of equity (11.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.81x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$78.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
57%
Summary
With ROTCE of 4.7% vs. 11.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $22.51 tangible book, implying $33.84 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (4.7%) is below the minimum investors require (11.8%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $78.67 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly