TFIN
Triumph Financial, Inc.
$66.77
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 94.9% above fair value
You pay
$66.77
Bear
$23.97
Fair
$34.26
Bull
$44.52
Bear
$23.97
-64.1%
ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$34.26
-48.7%
ROTCE 4.7% → 0.30x TBV
Bull
$44.52
-33.3%
ROTCE 5.4% → 0.30x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (4.7%) vs. cost of equity (12.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.95x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $72.00 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $34.26 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (4.7%) is below the minimum investors require (12.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $72.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly