TFII
TFI International Inc.
$147.76
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 68.8% below fair value
You pay
$147.76
Bear
$217.32
Fair
$473.10
Bull
$821.16
Bear
$217.32
+47.1%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$473.10
+220.2%
24% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$821.16
+455.7%
31% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (24% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
15.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.6%
vs 23.8% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $153.80 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $473.10 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $153.80 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 277% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions