TEX
Terex Corporation
$56.77
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.0% below fair value
You pay
$56.77
Bear
$40.38
Fair
$64.52
Bull
$89.34
Bear
$40.38
-28.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$64.52
+13.7%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$89.34
+57.4%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
19.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.6%
vs 12.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (31 analysts)
$81.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
21%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $64.52 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions