TEN
Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited
$52.38
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 21.5% below fair value
You pay
$52.38
Bear
$53.40
Fair
$66.75
Bull
$80.10
Bear
$53.40
+1.9%
$4.45 × 12x P/E
Fair
$66.75
+27.4%
$4.45 × 15x P/E
Bull
$80.10
+52.9%
$4.45 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
4.45$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$35.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
91%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.45, the base-case value is $66.75 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $35.00 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 91% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples