TECH
Bio-Techne Corporation
$48.21
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 52.1% above fair value
You pay
$48.21
Bear
$24.51
Fair
$31.69
Bull
$38.41
Bear
$24.51
-49.2%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$31.69
-34.3%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$38.41
-20.3%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
34.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $60.33 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $31.69 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 56% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $60.33 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions