TECH
Bio-Techne Corporation
$71.60
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 100.4% above fair value
You pay
$71.60
Bear
$27.47
Fair
$35.73
Bull
$43.47
Bear
$27.47
-61.6%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$35.73
-50.1%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$43.47
-39.3%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
50.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
21.4%
vs 8.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $66.44 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $35.73 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 56% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $66.44 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions